Some people may be surprised to learn that the current COVID vaccine was created in January, 2020. Not only that, it was developed in one weekend. Furthermore, the first batch of vaccines was shipped to the National Institute for Health on February 24, 2020. This occurred around the same time that China was implementing wide scale lockdowns in Wuhan province and before global concern about the coming pandemic was even beginning to grow. So, how was it that in spite of already having this lifesaving vaccine in January, prior even to the first U.S. COVID related deaths in February, 2020, that the country, and the world has experienced one of the worst pandemics, and worst set of economic lockdowns seen in the modern age.
The biggest question that may be asked, knowing that the vaccine had been created over a year ago, is "What took so damn long?". The sad truth, is that a large variety of factors played a roll in the spread of the virus, including the slow response to the growing threat. For the economist the solution was easier to theorize than to implement. The economist would say "let the free market take care of the problem", after all, it was the free market (Moderna) that first created the vaccine. Since the beginning of the COVID pandemic libertarian economists like John Cochrane have been pushing for this very solution. On the other side of the equation was the bureaucratic machine that is the U.S. government and organizations like the CDC and the FDA who were advocating a more cautious approach. According to Cochrane, this was the bottleneck in the development and distribution of the vaccine "The American pandemic response was beset by government failure from the very beginning ... Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar declared a public health emergency. Ironically, one effect of this declaration was to forbid clinical labs from creating their own tests without first obtaining an emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration". The primary issue that economists have with this requirement to have tests certified and authorized by the FDA is time. Filling, filing and waiting for certification of all the forms required by the FDA is an extremely time consuming process. Anyone who has ever had to sit at the DMV is familiar with the inefficiencies of a government bureaucracy.
Economists are not just concerned with the development and distribution of the vaccine. For them, the questions of testing is . The more widely available tests are, the faster the public will be able to get tested. While the FDA has been pushing for a 'perfect' test that does not produce false positives/negatives, economists do NOT care. They argue that first and only concern should be availability of testing. If the public is able to get tested, they will be able to self quarantine and thereby prevent further spread of the disease. Economists believe that given the opportunity to take cheap, at home costs, the vast majority of people would self quarantine in the event of a positive test. The entire goal of testing and quarantining is to prevent further exposure. The current tests that are being used are clinical, and are designed for people who have symptoms, this is insufficient to prevent the spread. Michael Mina, M.D., Ph.D. has been advocating for cheap at home testing, he believes this kind of testing would help curb the spread of the disease, "Such tests are cheap (<$5), can be produced in the tens of millions or more per week, and could be performed at home, opening the door to effective Covid filter regimens". The push for perfect testing (which still has not been accomplished) by the FDA has prevented the availability of at home testing which, had it been implemented earlier could have saved countless lives. Such testing is still illegal and the FDA and CDC have shown no indication that they will consider relaxing the requirements for testing to provide the public with a cheap, convenient option for testing. Such a measure would certainly help prevent the spread of the disease. Hopefully, the government will learn from their mistakes during the current pandemic and implement procedures to allow the market to respond quickly and efficiently to the next pandemic when it comes.
This is a very interesting blog that hits on many different ideas. For starters, WOW! I had no clue it only took a single weekend to create the vaccine. That is absurd how fast it took. However, I fully support the strenuous testing process for the vaccines by organizations like the FDA, one that was heavily sidestepped to expedite the process. Releasing half baked anything into the world is asking for unhappy customers. If it is an undercooked chicken you may get them salmonella. If a vaccine or any medicine is “undercooked” you could have many people die. The long term side effects are not even clear yet. Who is to say we won’t all grow a third arm in…
I have to say; I am confused on why economists are worried mainly about tests becoming available regardless of the confidence of false results are. With false results, there are false starts. Although I am confused, I see the benefits of having at-home testing, which would make it convenient for many and create a world where you do not have to go to a site to get tested. The mass testing sights also confuse me because there is so much room for spread with that many people going in and out. Many people are confused with all of the protocols going on during this pandemic, as some of them make no sense. When I was at the vaccination site, there…
I think that it would have been a politically unpalatable decision to have even a small percentage of healthy people falling sick due to undertested vaccines, even if the total casualty rate of that is lower than that of the virus itself, as the general population would not imagine a pandemic getting this bad. During the first wave, we did not forsee the magnitude and severity of the second, and during the second, we couldn't imagine the force of the third. This would make the solution of rolling out a potentially unsafe vaccine to millions impossible politically, even if it were the right thing to do ethically.
The fact that at home testing took so long to be widely available was a misstep, as I agree with you in thinking that it could have saved countless lives. The idea of it being a cheap and easy test would have allowed for some to test themselves regularly and negate the effect of false results. Quarantining if they had a false positive then retesting and catching false negatives quickly. Also allowing people to test in their own home quicker would make for less travel and less spread, if the person ended up being positive. I understand why the FDA and CDC would take there time in confirming the efficacy and safety of the vaccine, but its crazy to think…
I understand why China defeated the pandemic so rapidly, your article provided me more information for why it took U.S. this long to stop the pandemic. It sounds like every government bureaucracy operates separately, which reduces political problems caused by strict hierarchy, but when facing a national crisis, the separated departments are unable to execute based on one order and goal. I'm also very curious, how was the vaccine created so early in the Covid stage? Did China create it? If so, why didn't they use it until much later? It is definitely shocking to know it was created over a year before it was distributed in the U.S.. It's crazy how sometimes politics make people's live worse.